GDP Forecast
Model: AR(1) – ARIMA
Our best estimate of this quarter’s GDP, updated in real time as new key economic variables are released.
Our models.
Tariff Impact
Model: Linear ASM
How much will GDP increase once US tariffs come back to normal?
AI Stock Market Fuel
Model: SH – M3
Every company seems to be worth several trillion now.
Is there enough money to allow further valuation increases?
This model uses money supply to answer this question.
Broader Economic Models
Model: DSGE
How does GDP react to:
- Interest rate increases
- Government expenditure
- Trade balance changes